What will be the economic impact of new US sanctions?
The economic effect will be significant. You have to understand that these are not sanctions. This is a toolbox. How it will be used is actually another question. But this toolkit, in principle, allows you to completely cut off the Russian economy from any funding, completely cut off from any technology transfers.
It will have a negative impact if this is introduced, this toolkit will be used - the effect on the ruble will be simply amazing. To put it bluntly, you cannot invest in Russian securities. Both corporate bonds and OFZ. And, since a huge bubble is now inflated there, and the share of non-residents, only officially, is 35-40%, and in liquid issues and all 60%, then an exodus from Russian ruble bonds will simply begin. Which, in general, will lead to a collapse of the ruble.
Transfer of technologies will be completely, practically, prohibited. It is no secret that 80-85 percent of the Russian oilfield services market is served by foreign technologies, foreign companies. Although Rosneft lured away Schlumberger employees for wild money, this is not a question that can be solved, in fact. That is, problems with oil and gas production will begin. In fact, there are already examples when American sanctions torpedoed certain fields..
What are problems with oil and gas production, pipeline maintenance, and everything else? This is the main source of foreign exchange earnings in the country.
In principle, the toolkit is powerful, but the question is how it will be used. And a particularly interesting point in these sanctions, which gives me true pleasure and pleasure to read them, is the need for the special services and the president to provide Congress with reports on Russian oligarchs, their investments, investments of their families, relatives, relatives, and the like. And the most unpleasant thing for them is the analysis of the sources of their income. Since we have the Yukos case.
The Russian Federation submitted documents to the American court that the privatization of Yukos was illegal. And the American court agreed with this. But in our country all privatization went like this. Therefore, in fact, now the Russian oligarchs can be very strongly twisted by the beys.
And Putin for them very quickly turns from an asset that allowed them to live comfortably and accumulate huge fortunes into a liability. And this is very dangerous for Putin. Here I use the name Putin, as a common noun, and a collective image. I mean the Yeltsin-Putin clan, this family clan that runs the country. It turns into a liability for many.
Variations are possible here. Because the only thing that can lead to the lifting of these sanctions, or to weakening the serious international pressure that is growing on the Russian Federation is the withdrawal of troops from Donbass and the return of Crimea. At the moment, there is not at least some possibility that these issues could even be discussed in the political elite of Russia. This is a taboo for them. And since they are taboo, the sanctions will only increase. And new sanctions will be introduced.
So far, all the sanctions that were introduced, they, in fact, did not particularly affect the top. With rare exceptions. Mostly ordinary Russians suffer.
Air of August 1, 2017.