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RBK November 21, 2017 - Stepan Demura

Let's start with you with the most important. I am sure that most of the questions will concern the exchange rate of the Russian ruble.

The ruble stands still until the end of the year. A month and a week left. We promised 70. We can make it [smiles].

But, in fact, the ruble is quite stable. And, as it has probably already begun to reach the majority of investors and analysts, it is somehow suddenly not very strongly tied to the price of oil. Moreover, the situation is very interesting. If you look at the dynamics of the Junk index (this is an index of junk bonds, if not to say another word, we are just referring to it), then it fell with a stake. Made 1-2-3 down. Now it is being corrected. But at the same time, the Russian bond index did not fall very much [see the chart "RGBI Government Bond Index"], practically stands still [from mid-October 2017 to mid-November, decreased from 140.8 points to 139.38 points, that is , only 1%.].

Probably, we should wait for the next, small, wave of ruble strengthening. Let's see if it hits 56-57? And, in principle, this show will probably end there. With a strong ruble.

Where will we go?

The first goals are 97, then 125. Further - 250. And higher.

And then 67 kopecks. After the denomination.

I'm not kidding. Everyone understands to the extent of their own depravity.

Some financiers, in particular Jim Rogers, joked that all participants in the financial market, including financial journalists, would be better off thinking about going into agriculture. Buy a tractor.

I remember when Jim Rogers predicted the perpetual growth of the Chinese index when it was at 6000. It didn't work out.

He himself says that he is the worst timer in the world.

And agriculture, since we are talking about it, is, by and large, a dying industry. The most powerful hydroponics system is now being introduced. These systems are scalar, that is, they can easily increase power. Everything is completely controlled by electronics. The yield there is kind of wild. Therefore, I think that classical agriculture with the use of vast rural areas is simply doomed.

This may vary from country to country.

I'm talking about developed countries.

The problem there is a crisis of overproduction.

Yes. And it will only get worse due to the introduction of new technologies

Should the euro positions be increased at the current euro-dollar rate, or should the euro be dropped?

If you ask such questions and call RBC, then you probably need to close the position stupidly. Regardless of whether you have a profit or a loss. You have doubts about which side you are facing, which side you should be facing. Therefore, it is better to close the position.

If we talk about the market. Moreover, I will make a reservation, as many ask, that the market does not care deeply about my vision of its dynamics.

Inaudible, about market makers.

The market does not give a damn about market makers, by and large, as practice shows.

And if such a market, what are three market-makers?

If you are trading bitcoin or "nanocap", then you probably.

We have a lot of such papers.

Our entire market is like this [laughs].

Returning to the euro-dollar topic. It is not entirely clear - the big wave "B" has ended. Will the euro-dollar set a new top? If so, it will be somewhere around 1.225. Or it has already turned around, and the first target is there 0.87.

I believe that this will be clarified in the next week and a half. In a month it will become clear - has the dollar index set its four-year cycle lows or not? Or there will be a new test of these bottoms with a break. And then there will be the bottom of the four-year cycle. And there will be another wave of dollar burial. After which he will go far up [laughs].

The next question is ideological. The coming 2018 promises to be rich in pleasant financial surprises. What are the Russians lacking in happiness if there are no problems with money?

I am somehow inclined to believe that just pleasant financial surprises in 2018 will await five percent of those participating in the game on the market. As for the Russians, 2018 does not bring anything pleasant, from a financial point of view. Therefore, I think that financial happiness does not threaten, despite the fact that the indicators of confidence in the future, and financial happiness, as we say, in the country are at their maximum. Either the stars don't add up that way, or I just don't read them.

You just have to go outside and look around [laughs].

There were times when it was much worse. What crisis? Go to any supermarket. Everything is there.

Everything is there. It's just that the main retailers (one of which is now falling like a stone), as far as I know, the average check in two years has decreased by 50%. Even Rosstat is forced to state that our citizens' incomes are falling.

This is a separate topic. Numbers are a crafty thing.

I agree. From Rosstat - yes. If he says that something falls by a percentage, you must safely multiply by three. And this is not a joke.

There is an apartment. Sell ​​[it] and buy dollars, or still wait?

A question of price, as always. If there is extra living space. Real estate is not an asset and is not an investment. Real estate, or a consumer product ...

Explain this to people who bought a house on the shores of the Mediterranean for their apartment in a residential area of ​​Moscow.

I didn't finish the loaf [laughs]. It is either a consumer product or a means of production. Depending on the type of property. When does it become an asset? At the very end of the credit cycle, when the mania begins. The mania is over.

Japan is over the mania [see Urban land price index chart].

They fell 90%, maybe 6% grew.

[judging by the graph, the price of Japanese real estate fell by 50-80%, and has not yet grown a bit]

It's the same in Moscow. The country is running out of money. Of course, as we are told, we are about to start a new credit cycle in a low inflation environment [laughs]. Let them talk.

Sell your property if you can. Moreover, especially do not be greedy with the price, and go to dollars. Wait for February-March, buy more gold, and calmly see what happens next.

When to start buying gold? And what time?

Physical gold. I think in February-March. I believe prices will be below 1000 [dollars per ounce]

You mean bullion?


Where can you buy them?

"Sberbank" used to sell. I think it is still selling.

I am interested in the Central Bank interest rates in 2018. Will they continue to decline? And if, as Stepan says, the dollar grows against the ruble, will the rate be cut? Or will they already be promoted?

I think that at the beginning of 2018, it may be further reduced. But my friends and I again got into the tote. I made a bet that in 2018 the Central Bank's interest rate will reach the level of 20% to 30%. And we also think that the government will radically revise the budget at least once in 2018.

Draw conclusions.

What did you put on the sequestration? Hat?

It's serious there. Money. We drove with the hat. Played already.

Did the fifth wave end in the third in the Nasdaq and the S&P 500? How do you see the movement of gas in the next three months in the American market? Is wave "B" over?

We are now going up the gas from the triangle. We can probably go to five. Maybe [growth] can take one and a half to two months calmly. Then there will be a downward reversal, and for a long time. The first goals are 1,2-1,3.

As for the Nasdaq and the S&P 500. In principle, it would be much better for everyone if the third wave ended in the fifth. This refers to the movement from the bottom of 2016.

The most unpleasant scenario, which has the same force as the more pleasant, is that now the fifth wave ends in the fifth. That is, we will put the final top. And they should put it somewhere within a week and a half. The first target is 2608 by S & P500. This will be a very unpleasant scenario. Because this will be the final high of the S&P 500 and will start moving towards 666.36. Which may take one and a half to two years.

Again 666.

You can't go anywhere [laughs].

What does Stepan think about Bitcoin?

Short? Do you want to trade Bitcoin completely legally through the NYSE? You are welcome. It is full of stocks called "nanocap". With scanty capitalization. Trade. They grow five to six times in three to four hours. A great investment.

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