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RBK December 29, 2017 - Stepan Demura

Happy New Year Stepan Demura. We won't be tough today. It's high time to put cognac on the table. Let's talk about bitcoins at RBC. At the request of Yandex and Google. Bitcoin surpassed silver in 1982. There is no life without a sucker. All housewives are interested. New financial instruments.

Let's not pump like a Saxo bank ...

We won't.

... Shocking predictions.

We're just gradual

We won't be too gesticulating. Let's just remember what happened.

A new phenomenon has emerged this year that has entered the masses. [further quoting a long letter from an angry viewer about the dominance of bitcoins]


Sorry, our exchanges and serious analysis [inaudible]

In 2014-2020, we talked about the ruble and oil. And now it's somehow not in trend. It's not my fault.

Are you working on Google requests?

Of course, we take this into account.

It turns out a feedback: the more you say, the more statistics. That is, you are manipulating public opinion. It turns out. Are you a foreign agent?

Do you know any crypto whales?

No, I know the rest of the crypto, but no whales.

Bitcoin wave analysis done?

Yes.

And what did he show there? Was the climb surprising?

No.

It has been said many times, I will repeat it again. If you look at bitcoin dynamics, if you look at silver dynamics in 1982, gold dynamics in 1982 and 2000s, and Nasdaq dynamics [2000s], they are the same. The only thing is that bitcoin slightly surpassed, if you look at the yield, the dynamics of silver in 1982, going to its peak. And, according to historical data, he surpassed even the dynamics of tulips. Slightly he surpassed. Slightly.

And so, the wave structure was the same. And now the question is as follows. Will Bitcoin now go (after a long consolidation in the plus or minus 50% range) by 27 [thousand dollars], or will it go by 5 [thousand dollars], and everyone will forget about it? I am somehow inclined to the option that he will leave for 5-6 thousand, and then everyone will forget about him.

There is nothing new in it. This is a common mania. As it is written in Moishe's five-volume edition: “There is no life without a sucker.

What would we do if it weren't for him? What would you talk about?

Would have invented something. Arctic air would have the same dynamics.

Weather futures have been trading for a long time, but they are not being talked about.

They are not really promoted. For some reason it happened.

These futures will not affect the weather in any way.

For people seriously involved in Elliott theory and sociodynamics, this is just another book example. You can list all the signs of mania and schizophrenia that only exist. Offhand.

What happens at the height of the mania? In addition to the fact that all housewives are interested, people very far from everything are interested in the market and the asset. Nobody has made money on Bitcoin yet. Nobody brought that much money into the cash. And never will. Because with a capitalization of several hundred billions, it created an inflow of money of 15-20 billion dollars. It's not serious.

At the height of mania, new financial instruments appear for this asset. Futures. Track down the rest of the craze.

The CIA white paper on cryptocurrencies appeared in 1999.

Something is starting to reach governments and monetary authorities. At its peak. We look at our government, we look at the Belarusians. Well, of course - this is a serious topic. But the most interesting thing. Bitcoin will be discussed at the G20 meeting.

If we look at analytics, everything else. Does the whole bitcoin story remind you of the screams that oil will run out tomorrow when Goldman Sachs was pushing oil at 150 [dollars a barrel]? Everything is the same.

Do you remember the story in the late 90s that the cyclical economy ended, now there is a new economy, now we will never fall?

There was such a clown - Greenspan. Who declared that he beat the business cycle. Just a couple of years later, the business cycle showed him who beat whom [laughs]. By the way, Yelen also announced the other day (her life will be short, she is still aged) that there will be no more recessions in our century, there will be no more crises.

That's right, she's retired. And there will be no further.

But she still meant, probably, slightly younger generations.

So, everything is repeated. And people who do not know history and do not want to study it - they simply have no future.

Experiments were made with Greenspan with his envious speeches. If all the basic concepts are replaced by the opposite, then everything is exactly what happened. It's very simple.

In September, Stepan said that by the end of the year we can see 70 rubles per dollar. Didn't see. And next year, what levels can we see for the dollar-ruble pair?

I didn't say exactly that. I said that by the end of the year we can see 70, but before that there should be one more testing of the sacred range 56-57. Testing was postponed a little. Now we start

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