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City class June 26, 2019 - Stepan Demura

And now - a new forecast with new targets for ₽ - 55-56 !!!! Plus or minus a quarter, six months, a year !!!!!!)))) And sho there are still people who go to his seminars? Here's how to pull at 56, and 63 will be cheap to sell, at 56 just right. Anyway they'll push it) What about red 1500 and Baku 60?

And without Stepan, it's not clear where we're going ?! But not where he called us 5 years ago! We are looking forward to it.

There is a popular sign

In autumn, winter and summer,
And in the springtime,
There is a popular sign,
Brothers, I won't lie here ...
How they start scolding Stepan,
Fire in every way,
This is the beginning of the plan,
Ragged like a crap ...
The one who will be patient,
He will be on horseback,
Will fly like a fly on the jam,
And it will last twice

The long period of the ruble strengthening to its annual maximum has already generated a huge amount of fears and rumors. The course is at the level of 62.5 rubles. for the dollar is too tempting to predict an obligatory strong fall in the near future, which is what many are doing, there are already forecasts about a possible fall of the ruble to 100 per dollar, so soon we will again remember Demura and his promises about the dollar at 200 rubles.

The reality, of course, is much more prosaic. The ruble is strengthening along with other currencies of developing countries amid increased investor demand for risky assets, and the pressure on the dollar has become stronger lately, which additionally allows such currencies to grow. Another factor is interest in Russian assets, primarily OFZ, but other assets do not stand aside either, since the risks of sanctions, apparently, are no longer perceived as painfully. Oil, as a traditional indicator, now generally has a minimal impact on the exchange rate.

In terms of fundamental indicators, Russia really looks good: gold and foreign exchange reserves continue to grow, they have already exceeded $ 500 billion; everything is fine with the balance of payments - the current account surplus is gradually growing, it reached $ 48.7 billion in January-May; with the budget, too, everything is not bad, etc. Therefore, non-residents are actively returning everything that they previously withdrawn. The problem is that if the trend changes and the background deteriorates, all these non-residents and indecisive investors will, just like in the past, flee from the Russian market, which will turn into another wave of ruble devaluation. Let's remember how a couple of years ago the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance did not see any problem in the high share of non-residents in Russian government bonds, and how it turned out. If in March the share of non-residents was at the level of 25.9%, then by the end of May it increased to 29.4%. The record is unlikely to be repeated, but the dynamics itself is already a reason to think. I don't even want to talk about the danger of the OFZ pyramid, we always have it. Tomorrow there will be another placement, and it is very likely to show continued high demand.

The ruble is extremely dependent on investor sentiment, so it will be up to how the US-China dialogue on the trade war goes. In general, there are no reasons for unrest so far: the tax period is supporting, and Washington and Beijing have switched to restrained rhetoric, expressing their readiness to negotiate. But everything can change very quickly, although even a relatively strong drop now, for example, to 65 rubles. per dollar, will not be critical, but will simply confirm the increased volatility of the ruble.

"MODEST AND SMART MAN" ...

He doesn't show off at all,
Harmless Person,
It is not good to offend Him,
You will never find such people...
Modest Genius in Russia,
Yes, and I must admit to everyone,
These are dashing times,
He is able to give advice...
Well, then every brother,
Your own lord, king,
Bucks make it easier to get out,
As a brother, you are not gutar...

«Don’t sculpt a humpback ”...

Advertising against the Guru,
Wild trolling - reigns the ball,
How they start scolding Stepan,
So expect a landslide soon ...
They are accused of all serious,
Although there is no fault in Him,
They are being driven into the stall in chorus,
To drain the greenery ...
The main thing here is not to get confused,
And send them the farthest,
And you won't melt with Baku,
Roll them into a nut…

Trofima Natalyeva called City Glass. There were few people, they moved. After the strengthening of the ruble, 4 years have already been such a canoe, as Stepan Demura said a couple of years ago, when the dollar exceeds 90, then the full halls will be at the Seminars.

Main economic trends:

RF GDP growth in the 1st quarter amounted to 0.54% y / y. While the government is talking nicely about national projects and the transition to an investment model of growth in the economy, a decline in investment began; gross fixed capital formation in Q1 decreased by 2.6% y / y - the maximum drop in the last 4 years. Consumer demand, supported mainly by lending, is the only thing that keeps the economy from recession. Slowed down significantly in Q1 (1.6% YoY vs 2.6% YoY in Q4) Problems of the world economy (trade wars) did not bypass Russia - for the first time since 2016, export dynamics went into negative region (-0.4% YoY) Imports are declining for the second quarter in a row (-1.6% YoY in Q1 and -0.3% YoY in Q4), and this is happening faster, than the decline in exports. Therefore, net exports (exports minus imports) for the last four quarters have made a positive contribution to GDP growth

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In the photo: Drinking beer and watching Stepan Demura's new seminar in City class

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