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City class January 25, 2018 - Stepan Demura

The New Year has begun very merrily. What events were there in 2017? Medical science has begun to recognize some of the medicinal effects of cannabis. Curing people from cancer. Chinese medicine, the connection between the brain and the organ that hurts is lost. Marijuana is legalized in some countries. No getting used to, it opens up unpleasant prospects for the new world order. The grass acts on the consciousness of a person, cleanses it. A big mistake, like the internet.

Sociodynamics, Eliot. The rise and fall of cryptocurrencies. Also Tesla and Amazon. They are not profitable, these are bubbles that are waiting to collapse. Trump made me very happy. Many jerked off to his impeachment. Old Hillary was bought for 200 million. Trump is ours, in our board. They do not allow him to sign his love for our permanent leader. We drove with American flags along the Garden Ring.

All factories, factories, steamers are not needed by anyone. When a technological revolution occurs. falling real incomes of the population. Everything will start before February 7th. The dollar trading cycle should reverse. I have nothing to do with the markets. Central banks do not manage debt creation. Unmanaged process. There is always a lot of cheap money. Loot triumphs over evil. You are stupidly investing in money, but you need profitability.

The Russian authorities, Demura believes, did not expect such a development of events. The analyst also voiced the story of Hillary Clinton, which, in his opinion, the Russian authorities bought for 270 million, and this is precisely the reason for the resulting attitude of the Obama administration to the events in Ukraine and Syria. Now everything has changed dramatically, says Demura, who sneers at the fact that the Russian authorities expected Trump to be pro-Russian, and only the American establishment does not allow him to show his true attitude towards Russia. The analyst also confirmed that, in his opinion, new sanctions will be introduced, and also suggested that sooner or later they will also affect the ban on the purchase of the Russian state debt. However, before that, American experts had to study the possible impact of such sanctions on the US economy, but the expert believes that the results of the report will be such that the Russian financial system "the size of a pixel on the map" will not have a significant impact.

Говоря о готовящемся к тому моменту к публикации так называемом «Кремлевском докладе», Демура сравнил западную юридическую систему с паровым катком.

All lawsuits are proceeding very slowly in the West, but the law, the expert says, is like a steam roller, which has already begun to gain momentum. Many do not understand why with sanctions, confiscation of property, and accusations, everything is delayed, and the process is moving very slowly, however, according to the expert, everything has its time.

Russia's economy is in a deplorable state, Demura is sure.

Commenting on the situation in the Russian economy, the expert was generous with sarcasm. In particular, Demura also recalled the government's promises that by 2018 20 million high-paying jobs would be created, and about doubling the GDP. The analyst also recalled the promise of Oreshkin, who stated that the Russian economy had already gone through the bottom, and literally will begin to develop now, because artificial intelligence, new logistics, and some other settlement systems will be introduced everywhere within 2 years. And Demura also added that the Russian authorities made a loud statement that a new credit cycle has begun in Russia with low inflation, imagine, the expert shares, all over the world it ends, and we begin.

So what is happening with the economy, if you do not delve into the details of inflation provided by Rosstat, then according to the analyst, very unpleasant things are happening. We are talking here about the GDP growth that allegedly happened in 2017, but after all, oil prices rose, and this is evident from the fact that the income of enterprises in the manufacturing sector decreased by 11% year-on-year, in trade - by 20%, and in construction and at all 3 times. On the other hand, the revenues of oil refineries increased by 80%, respectively, the profit of raw materials companies also increased by about 20%. This reflects the entire growth of the economy - oil prices have grown, the economy has grown in terms of GDP, oil prices have fallen, everything that has grown will also fall accordingly. But this factor does not affect all other industries, because they have been shrinking and will continue to shrink, the analyst shares his opinion. Moreover, this process is acquiring an accelerating character, as is the actual decline in the real disposable income of the population, as can be seen in the graph on which two graphs are superimposed: average quarterly oil prices and Russia's quarterly GDP in dollars. So, on this graph there is a complete correspondence.

Demura said that the recession in the real sector has been going on since 2013, and this process is only accelerating, and this happened not at all because of sanctions, but for completely different fundamental reasons that no one is fighting against. And since the real incomes of the population continue to fall, a decrease in interest rates on mortgages even to 5% will not help, and people will not be able to take out loans. That is why the Russian economy is in a very deplorable state.

At the same time, Demura considers the situation in the world economy in a pessimistic manner. Today the situation in the economy is quite simple, the expert shares, for some reason everyone has very high expectations about the future, but there is no money, where this optimism comes from is not clear. Look what is really happening, Demura notes, the Central Bank prints money, there is cheap money, and the euphoria in the market, according to observations over 40 years, shows that it is now at its maximum value. Savings are at the minimum level, not only in Russia, but also in the United States and Europe, debts are at the maximum level, that is, there is no real money at all, but everyone is waiting for a miracle to come tomorrow.

Demura also recalled the words of one academician economist, who says that technological revolutions help to get out of depression, but according to Demura, it is these technological revolutions that are the cause of the depression. When a technological revolution happens, a large amount of invested capital in the industries where the revolution took place is instantly destroyed, because the old technologies become useless.

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